Even if the Russian market in Turkey disappears completely, German tourists may not be able to count on super-cheap prices for luxury Turkish hotels this summer. Firstly, significantly more expensive jet fuel will keep prices for tours at a high level; secondly, in the conditions of hard-won covid years and the economic crisis, hotels simply have nowhere to reduce prices. This is how Turkish hoteliers and local German tour operators broke off the euphoria of German tourists and their expectation of low prices for luxury holidays.
Local publications reminded German tourists that Russia, with 4.7 million tourists, was Turkey's biggest market in 2021, well ahead of Germany with 3.1 million holidaymakers. In third place was Ukraine – 2.1 million people – and “this target group is likely to disappear almost completely,” German media say. As for the Russians, they are not so sure, saying that it is premature to make predictions. Of course, the Russians will suffer from economic and air sanctions, but local experts are still afraid to reassure German tourists with the complete disappearance of the Russian market in Turkey.
“Unfortunately, in Turkey we can expect minus about seventy percent of the Russian and Ukrainian markets. And this is a positive scenario,” Deniz Ugur, head of the Bentour travel company in Turkey, commented to them. Moreover, if the special operation does not last too long, then the decline may be less.
Nevertheless, although foreign experts call on Turkey to fight for other markets through low prices, they will not be extremely low. “Yes, many hotels are in need of higher occupancy and are looking to bring special offers to market. This was to be expected. However, if the largest source market suddenly collapses, Turkey will have to sell the vacant numbers elsewhere – for example, in Germany or other countries. To get rid of their goods, they must reduce the cost of rooms, which, in turn, can reduce the cost of tours. It's a theory,” Mr. Uğur described. However, it does not have to coincide with practice.
The reason is that the prices in the Turkish market are already unjustifiably low – according to the statement of the German media, a week on the all-inclusive system in the summer in Turkey can be obtained for less than a thousand euros. In other places, such as Mallorca, this is hardly available anymore. But “fabulous prices” should not be expected – three factors will “come out” against them: the urgent need to catch up after two years of a pandemic, increased hygiene costs and rising energy costs.
“From the current point of view, it is unlikely that Turkey will be sold extremely cheap on the market, and this is especially true for popular hotels. And secondly, we must take into account that airfare prices are under pressure due to higher prices for kerosene. As a result, there will be no discounted tour packages,” the German tour operator TUI saddened consumers.
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